The Presidency

POS 4413

The Electoral College

l    The Basics:

l    Electoral College

l    Electors

l    Winner-Take-All Election System

l    Small State Bias

l    Direct Popular Election

The Outcome

l    Who wins?

l    The Candidate with the most votes?

The 2000 Election 

The Popular Vote

            Al Gore                        50,996,039

            George W. Bush          50,456,141

The Electoral Vote

          George W. Bush                      271

            Al Gore                                    267

Historical Background

l    The framers of the Constitution disagreed on how to elect a president—congressional selection or direct popular election;

l    The electoral college was a compromise, combining features of both approaches;

l    The electoral college also reflects the federal nature of the Constitution because it ensured that the states have a role in selecting the president.

State Electoral Votes

Electoral Votes Continued

l    Total: 435 House members plus 100 senators plus 3 electors for the District of Columbia = 538 electoral votes;

l    Needed to win – 270

l    Yes, there can be a tie – 269 + 269 = 538

If There is a Tie

l    If no candidate has a majority, the House selects the president from among the three presidential candidates with the most electoral votes.  Each state delegation has one vote.  This last happened in 1824 when Congress chose John Quincy Adams over Andrew Jackson and William Crawford.

l    The Senate selects the vice president from the top two vice-presidential candidates.

The “Small” State Factor

l    Population of Florida = 16.5 million

l    No. of electoral votes = 25 (Now 27)

l    660,000 Floridians = 1 Electoral Vote

l    Population of ND = 635,000

l    No. of electoral votes = 3

l    211,666 N. Dakotans = 1 Electoral Vote

l    It takes 3.2 Floridians to equal 1 N. Dakotan

Popular Vote v. Electoral Vote

In a close race, the popular vote winner may not win the electoral college.  One candidate may win states by lopsided margins while the other wins states by narrow margins.  One candidate may be helped by winning most of the smaller states, which benefit from the small-state bias caused by each state getting at least three electoral votes regardless of its size.

Electoral vote winners who lost the popular vote

lBush over Gore in 2000

lBenjamin Harrison over Grover Cleveland in 1888

lRutherford B. Hayes over Samuel Tilden in 1876

3 Way Races

l    1968 – Richard Nixon                      301

    Hubert Humphrey               191

    George Wallace                   46

l    1992 – Bill Clinton                            370

                George H.W. Bush              168

                Ross H. Perot                         0

      Perot scored no electoral college votes despite polling 19, 741,065 popular votes out of a total of c. 108 million votes cast.   

Electors

l    Individuals selected in each state to officially cast that state’s electoral votes.

l    Florida selects 25 electors to cast the state’s 25 electoral votes.

l    Framers anticipated that electors would be state leaders who would exercise good judgment.

l    Today, party leaders select competing slates of electors who are typically long-time party activists.

l    Electors almost always vote for their party’s candidates.

Selection of Electors

l    Each state determines the manner of selection

l    All but two states use a winner-take-all statewide election system

l    If Candidate A gets the most votes in a state, Candidate A gets the whole slate of electors.

l    Maine and Nebraska award electors based on the statewide vote and the vote in each of the state’s congressional districts.

Voters and Electors

    A Floridian who voted for Bush was really voting for a slate of electors pledged to cast the state’s electoral votes for Bush.  In 2000, Bush won all of Florida’s 25 electoral votes because the final official vote tally showed him ahead of Gore by about 600 votes.

So What?

l    The Supreme Court issued its 5/4 decision to stop the Florida recount and, effectively, declare George W. Bush the winner of the 2000 election on December 18^th.

l    The Republican controlled Florida House voted to appoint a slate of electors for Bush on December 12^th;

l    The Florida Senate, also Republican controlled, was about to vote on December 13^th when Al Gore conceded.

The Problems

l    Small state bias;

l    Popular vote not constitutionally embedded;

l    Winner takes all;

l    Big state campaigning strategy;

l    Voter turn-out and disaffection;

l    Racial bias – whites tend to live in bigger states;

l    Winner of the popular vote does not necessarily win;

The Problems Continued

l    The House of Representatives is the ultimate arbiter of a tie;

l    Tactical voting;

l    Political legitimacy of victor, e.g. Bush 2000

l    Not what the Framers intended;

l    Can’t change it.

l    Florida gets stuck with all the tv ads.