Research:

Species distribution modeling

Understanding species distributions in space and time is essential to ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. There is a growing need for robust habitat models that can adequately predict species distributions across broad spatial scales. Such models can be an invaluable tool for conservation biologists by allowing biologists to evaluate potential management actions, interpret the potential effects of climate change, and maximize biodiversity with reserve selection algorithms. Yet the ability to use these models is often limited by a general lack of incorporating ecological theory into modeling approaches. Many theories in ecology can potentially help guide the modeling process and could not only improve predictions but could also provide wider inference regarding habitat quality in heterogeneous landscapes.

In collaboration with the Avian Science Center at the University of Montana, the Fletcher Lab is developing robust, large-scale species distribution models as part of a grant from the USDA-NRI program. A key part of this grant focuses on incorporating novel predictions from habitat selection and metapopulation theory explicitly into species distribution models. Using advanced statistical methods we are developing, we are testing whether these unique predictions improve model fit and provide broader inference on habitat quality across the intermountain West. We will then develop GIS-based tools based on these spatially explicit models to better inform decision-making.

PIs, collaborators, and lab members: Rob Fletcher, Chris Rota, Jason Evans, Miguel Acevedo, R. L. Hutto (University of Montana), J. S. Young (University of Montana).