My Research...
Chapter 1...
The first is "Effects of State Government Policies on Electricity Capacity from Non-Hydropower Renewable Sources." I find that not only do Clean Energy Funds and Renewables Portfolio Standards both increase renewable-based capacity by directly requiring or funding construction, but states can also increase renewable capacity by requiring all utilities to offer renewable energy to consumers.
Chapter 2...
The second essay, "The Effect of Fuel Contracting Constraints on SO2 Trading Program Compliance," explains the theory behind how inefficiencies in the Sulfur Dioxide Trading Program may be caused by long-term coal contracts. I show that due to the discrete scrubber choice made by electric power plants, total industry compliance costs may have increased even though the allowance price was much lower than initially expected. Long-term coal contracts restricted generating units from switching from high-sulfur coal to low-sulfur coal and made installing a scrubber relatively cheaper than it would have been if all coal was purchased on the spot market. More scrubber installations lead to lower demand, greater supply, and a lower price for SO2 allowances.
Chapter 3...
The third essay "Impacts of Long-Term Coal Contracts on SO2 Compliance: Empirical Evidence," tests the theoretical results from Chapter 2 by running model simulations that estimate the actual inefficiencies caused by long-term coal contracts. It currently runs these simulations at the generating unit level, although I hope to include plant-level compliance decisions. Even if I do not include any plant-level simulation results, I will include the additional theory that explains the additional information these simulations should add to the literature. So far I have been able to replicate results from the literature at the generating unit level and found that long-term contracts appear to account for a large portion, if not the entirety, of the unexplained costs seen in previous studies. I should have a first draft posted within the next few weeks.
Future Research...
My new position at NIST will lead my future research agenda to shift away from policy to life-cycle cost analysis using the BEES software designed by NIST. A more detailed description will be posted once I delve into my work at NIST and I become more aquainted with my new responsibilities.
However, I still intend to continue my research in environmental policy in some capacity. The simulation model in Chapter 3 can be expanded to include state regulation parameters, which will find the combined impacts of both regulation and coal contract constraints on industry compliance costs. Another topic of interest is the market dynamics that will occur under the newly enacted Clean Air Interstate Rule. Emissions restrictions differ between CAIR-affected utilities and the utilities that remain under Phase II restrictions, which causes the relative value of an allowance to differ across the two regions. Yet another topic of interest is the effect that fuel contract constraints and discrete technology choices will have on the future carbon emissions trading program. Utilities will face restrictions on input choices and capacity use in the short-run, which could lead to sub-optimal compliance choices. The enactment of a carbon emissions trading program will have significant repercussions on other federal and state policies, such as Renewables Portfolio Standards with Renewable Energy Certificate trading programs. These will be important issues in environmental policy if the Lieberman-Warner Bill currently in Congress is enacted.